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ValidAnytime

A guaranteed false-alarm budget across your whole fleet, valid no matter how often you look.

Made by Compiled Intelligence — a frontier AI lab working on quantitative finance from first principles; ValidAnytime is the monitoring we built for our own model fleets, productized.

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Every alarm ships with its guarantee_tag and theorem_ref.

Glossary

Confidence sequence

A confidence sequence is a sequence of confidence intervals that stays valid at every point in time, so you can read it whenever you like.

Also known as: anytime-valid confidence interval

A confidence sequence is a whole ribbon of confidence intervals — one for every moment — that are all valid at the same time. A normal confidence interval, by contrast, is a one-shot promise: it is only valid if you fix the sample size up front and look exactly once. With a confidence sequence you can watch the interval tighten as data arrives and stop the instant it tells you what you need.

For monitoring, this means you can track an estimate live — a conversion rate, a model's accuracy, an average score — and act the moment the interval excludes the value you cared about, without the usual penalty for looking early or often.

Confidence sequences are the interval-shaped sibling of e-processes: the same anytime-valid machinery, expressed as a range you can trust rather than a single alarm.

Go deeper

  • Anytime-valid 101 in the docs

Related terms

  • Anytime-valid inferenceAnytime-valid inference is a way of testing that stays statistically valid no matter how often you look at the results.
  • E-processAn e-process is a running score of evidence against 'nothing has changed'; its value at any moment is an e-value, and it stays valid at every look.
  • Sequential testingSequential testing is the practice of testing a hypothesis as data arrives, deciding to stop as soon as the evidence is conclusive.
  • Conformal monitoringConformal monitoring is the practice of turning a model's outputs into calibrated evidence of change without assuming how the data is distributed.

Put the theory to work.

ValidAnytime turns these ideas into a live alarm you can trust — valid no matter how often you look. Prove it on your own data, free.

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