Has Los Angeles (LADWP)'s demand forecast drifted?
LDWP · updated Jul 6, 22:08 UTC
No regime change detected
Los Angeles (LADWP) — no forecast-error regime change detected
The day-ahead forecast's error has stayed within its calibrated band. Not a certificate that nothing happened.
quiet streak 6 monthsbudget ≈1 false page per BA-yearwatching since Jan 2024
59.10%
mean abs. forecast error
of demand (MAPE)
2,639 MW
mean demand
232 MW
typical error
median |error|
2,988 MW
worst-hour error
99th pctile |error|
The evidence, last two weeks
Because the baseline is the operator’s own forecast, seasonality is subtracted for free — what’s left is the miss. The detector pages only when that miss enters a new regime and clears the page line.
Real EIA-930 data for Los Angeles (LADWP) — the last 336 hourly points. The forecast is the grid operator’s own day-ahead demand forecast (not ours); the error is actual − forecast, peaking at +2,323 MW in this window. The evidence statistic stayed under the page line: no regime change detected. That is not proof nothing happened. Back-in-band is a display heuristic, not a certificate of absence.
Forecast-error regime changes5 in the monitored history
Each is a dated page inside the stated budget. Labels attach only where a window overlaps a documented grid-stress event — never invented. We detect that the forecast’s error changed regime, not that the grid failed or why.
EndedJan 5, 2026 → Jan 6, 2026
peak evidence
9.26
forecast miss at onset
−2,540 MW
load at onset
0th pctile of this grid
back in-band
Jan 6, 2026
EndedJan 3, 2026 → Jan 6, 2026
peak evidence
11.92
forecast miss at onset
−2,306 MW
load at onset
1th pctile of this grid
back in-band
Jan 6, 2026
EndedJan 2, 2026 → Jan 6, 2026
peak evidence
13.43
forecast miss at onset
−2,250 MW
load at onset
0th pctile of this grid
back in-band
Jan 6, 2026
EndedJan 22, 2025 → Jan 23, 2025January 2025 cold wave
peak evidence
9.41
forecast miss at onset
−1,407 MW
load at onset
4th pctile of this grid
back in-band
Jan 23, 2025
EndedJun 27, 2024 → Jun 30, 2024
peak evidence
9.70
forecast miss at onset
−3,072 MW
load at onset
1th pctile of this grid
back in-band
Jun 30, 2024
How this verdict is formed
The hourly error runs through a conformal band that learns Los Angeles (LADWP)’s own normal forecast-error rate, into a Shiryaev–Roberts e-detector on a bounded rolling window. An alarm fires only when accumulated evidence crosses the page line — and because the statistic is anytime-valid, checking as often as you like never inflates the false-alarm rate. Full recipe, and exactly what we do not claim, on the methodology page.
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A live status pill for Los Angeles (LADWP), refreshed every publish. Drop it in a README, status page, or dashboard — it always shows the current verdict and links back here. It reads no regime change while the forecast holds, and flips to forecast drift detected when the e-detector pages.
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